American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) issued an update on its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Tuesday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 1.700-2.700 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 1.980. The company issued revenue guidance of -. American Airlines Group also updated its Q1 2026 guidance to -0.500–0.100 EPS.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

AAL has been the topic of a number of recent research reports. UBS Group upped their price target on shares of American Airlines Group from $20.00 to $21.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. TD Cowen reissued a “buy” rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. Wells Fargo & Company assumed coverage on American Airlines Group in a report on Thursday, December 18th. They issued an “equal weight” rating and a $17.00 price target for the company. Susquehanna upgraded American Airlines Group from a “neutral” rating to a “positive” rating and boosted their price objective for the company from $14.00 to $20.00 in a research note on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Citigroup increased their price objective on American Airlines Group from $19.00 to $21.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. Eight research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, seven have given a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $17.61.

American Airlines Group Stock Down 2.1%

NASDAQ:AAL traded down $0.31 during trading hours on Tuesday, hitting $14.26. 15,541,759 shares of the company’s stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 55,136,523. American Airlines Group has a 52 week low of $8.50 and a 52 week high of $17.47. The business’s fifty day simple moving average is $14.89 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $13.30. The firm has a market cap of $9.42 billion, a P/E ratio of 16.47, a P/E/G ratio of 0.52 and a beta of 1.23.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, January 27th. The airline reported $0.16 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.38 by ($0.22). American Airlines Group had a negative return on equity of 18.14% and a net margin of 1.11%.During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned $0.86 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. American Airlines Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at -0.500–0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 1.700-2.700 EPS. On average, analysts expect that American Airlines Group will post 2.42 EPS for the current year.

Key Stories Impacting American Airlines Group

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Record revenue, stronger balance sheet and bullish 2026 guidance: American reported record Q4 revenue ($14.0B) and full-year revenue ($54.6B), cut total debt by $2.1B in 2025, and guided FY2026 adjusted EPS to $1.70–$2.70 with expected free cash flow >$2B — a clear tailwind for future profitability. American Airlines Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results
• Positive Sentiment: Demand mix and premium strength: Management highlighted strong premium-cabin and corporate travel demand (bookings up in January, system revenue intake up double digits for early 2026), which supports higher-margin revenue and the company’s profit forecast. American Airlines forecasts 2026 profit above estimates on strong premium demand
• Neutral Sentiment: Competitive pressure at key hubs: United’s big summer expansion at Chicago O’Hare escalates hub competition — a factor that could pressure fares or market share in a major U.S. market, timing/impact uncertain. United Airlines ramps up Chicago flights as O’Hare rivalry with American Airlines heats up
• Negative Sentiment: Earnings miss and weak profitability metrics: AAL reported $0.16 EPS vs. $0.38 expected; GAAP net income fell sharply YoY and operating margins compressed — an immediate negative for near-term sentiment and valuation. American Airlines projects revenue growth for 2026, misses earnings estimates for fourth quarter
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue and operational hits from external shocks: The company said the government shutdown reduced Q4 revenue by ~$325M and Winter Storm Fern caused >9,000 cancellations; Q1 guidance factors in a ~1.5‑point capacity reduction and a negative revenue hit, which clouds near-term results. American Airlines Group Inc. Reports Record Fourth-Quarter Revenue Despite Government Shutdown Impact

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Two Sigma Investments LP lifted its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 49.1% in the 3rd quarter. Two Sigma Investments LP now owns 13,670,800 shares of the airline’s stock worth $153,660,000 after acquiring an additional 4,500,897 shares during the last quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP raised its position in American Airlines Group by 4.9% in the 3rd quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 6,709,023 shares of the airline’s stock worth $75,414,000 after purchasing an additional 316,143 shares during the period. Voloridge Investment Management LLC lifted its stake in American Airlines Group by 19.5% in the third quarter. Voloridge Investment Management LLC now owns 3,729,689 shares of the airline’s stock worth $41,922,000 after purchasing an additional 609,457 shares during the last quarter. Invesco Ltd. boosted its position in American Airlines Group by 9.3% during the third quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 3,253,692 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $36,571,000 after buying an additional 275,686 shares during the period. Finally, Sei Investments Co. grew its stake in shares of American Airlines Group by 25.4% during the third quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 1,649,509 shares of the airline’s stock valued at $18,540,000 after buying an additional 333,977 shares during the last quarter. 52.44% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world’s largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.

The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.