Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) executives repeatedly returned to a single theme on the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call: uncertainty. Still, management emphasized several areas where it said the outlook is becoming clearer, including a supply backdrop that is easing across most of its markets and a strategic shift away from California in favor of expanding in the Sun Belt and repurchasing shares.
2025 results and operating backdrop
Chairman and CEO Ric Campo said Camden “finished 2025 strong,” exceeding its original guidance for core funds from operations (Core FFO) by $0.13 per share. Campo highlighted several factors he said give the company confidence despite choppy conditions, including a view that new supply “has peaked and is falling like a knife” in Camden’s markets, and that 2025 saw one of the highest levels of apartment absorption in the past two decades.
For fourth-quarter leasing, Oden said new leases were down 5.3%, renewals were up 2.8%, and blended rates were -1.6%. Renewal offers for first-quarter expirations were sent with average increases of 3% to 3.5%. Management also pointed to low resident move-outs to buy homes, with Campo emphasizing that apartments remain significantly more affordable than homeownership. Oden said move-outs to purchase homes were 9.6% in the fourth quarter and 9.8% for the full year.
Market-by-market outlook and 2026 revenue expectations
Oden said Camden graded its overall portfolio a “B” entering 2026, with a “stable but improving” outlook. At the midpoint, Camden’s 2026 same-property revenue growth guidance is 75 basis points—roughly in line with 2025—while management expects conditions to improve as the year progresses, with “modest acceleration” in the second half.
Oden walked through market expectations, noting that Austin and Denver were expected to be the two outliers with slight revenue declines in 2026. Austin is still pressured by supply, while Denver’s revenue outlook reflects regulatory changes affecting utility rebilling. Washington, D.C. Metro was cited as outperforming in 2025 with 3.5% revenue growth and entering 2026 with 96% occupancy. Houston was described as benefiting from limited supply, while Southern California posted mid-3% revenue growth in 2025, helped by lower bad debt, though Oden said that tailwind is expected to fade in 2026.
In the Q&A, management said it expects slight improvements in both new lease and renewal performance in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2025, with more visibility expected as peak leasing season approaches.
California sale plan, capital redeployment, and buybacks
A central topic of the call was Camden’s decision to market its 11 California operating communities for sale. President and CFO Alex Jessett said preliminary indications and “market chatter” suggest a valuation range of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion, with the company assuming a mid-year close.
Jessett said Camden is assuming roughly 60% of proceeds will be reinvested in existing Sun Belt markets through 1031 exchanges, while the remainder—modeled at $650 million—would fund share repurchases. He said Camden had already completed nearly $400 million of the repurchases associated with the planned sales and expects to complete the remaining buybacks in early 2026. The board also approved a new $600 million share repurchase authorization.
Campo explained the timing and rationale for selling California now, citing a desire to be “in front” of a potential pivot in Sun Belt growth, stronger transaction volume on the coasts, and the opportunity to sell at a cap rate “substantially less” than the implied cap rate in Camden’s stock while redeploying into the Sun Belt and repurchasing shares.
Management said it will pursue the structure that maximizes value, whether through a portfolio sale or individual asset transactions. If the California proceeds ultimately come in closer to the top of the range, Jessett said Camden would likely increase both the 1031 exchange reinvestment amount and the buyback.
Core FFO results and 2026 guidance
Camden reported fourth-quarter Core FFO of $193.1 million, or $1.73 per share, $0.03 ahead of the midpoint of prior guidance. Jessett attributed the beat entirely to higher fee and asset management income from Camden’s third-party construction business due to favorable job closeouts that came in under budget; property revenues, expenses, and NOI were “exactly in line” with expectations.
For 2026, Camden guided Core FFO per share to $6.60 to $6.90, with a midpoint of $6.75, which Jessett said would be down $0.13 from 2025. At the midpoint, same-store NOI is expected to decline 50 basis points, reflecting 75 basis points of revenue growth and 3% expense growth. Jessett said each 1% change in same-store NOI equates to about $0.09 per share in Core FFO.
Jessett said the company’s same-store guidance includes California for the full year, adding approximately 25 basis points to revenue and 40 basis points to NOI. He also said the midpoint of revenue growth assumes 55 basis points from rental income and 20 basis points from other income, with market rent growth expected to be about 2% across the year, weighted to the second half.
For the first quarter of 2026, Camden expects Core FFO per share of $1.64 to $1.68. Jessett said the sequential decline from the fourth quarter largely reflects seasonally higher expenses, lower fee and asset management income after a strong fourth quarter, higher interest expense tied in part to repurchases, and lower non-same-store NOI due to dispositions. He also said the company plans to issue a new $400 million to $500 million bond later in the quarter.
Development economics, regulation in Denver, and other topics
On development, Jessett said construction costs are coming down, citing a 5% to 8% reduction, but added that deals remain difficult to “pencil.” Camden’s guidance includes up to $335 million in development starts late in the year and about $200 million of total development spend in 2026. He described untrended stabilized yields in the 5% to 5.5% range, with some sites penciling in the mid-5% range, while specific planned projects in Denver and downtown Nashville were described as more challenging, contributing to timing being pushed toward late 2026 starts.
Denver also drew questions around regulation. Management cited Colorado House Bill 25-1090, effective January 1, which it said no longer allows billing for common-area utilities. Jessett said the impact is about $1.8 million, or roughly 19 basis points of same-store NOI. COO Laurie Baker added that the law requires greater fee transparency, including disclosing the full cost of renting and estimating utilities before lease signing, and said Camden has sub-metered all properties to capture needed information.
Asked about the outlook for new-lease rent growth crossing back into positive territory, management said the inflection point is important and that it is “probable” it could happen in 2026, while reiterating that timing remains uncertain.
About Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT)
Camden Property Trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in the ownership, development and management of multifamily residential communities across the United States. The company’s core business activities include acquiring land for new construction, overseeing the design and development of garden-style and mid-rise apartment communities, and providing ongoing property management services. Camden’s asset management team focuses on maintaining high occupancy levels, resident satisfaction and operational efficiency through consistent leasing, maintenance and community engagement programs.
Camden’s portfolio encompasses a geographically diversified mix of properties located primarily in high-growth Sun Belt and major metropolitan markets.
