Post (NYSE:POST) executives said fiscal 2026 is “off to a great start” after first-quarter adjusted EBITDA came in well above expectations, prompting the company to significantly raise its guidance. Management attributed the stronger outlook to operating performance across the portfolio and an updated normalized earnings run rate in the Foodservice segment, while noting that aggressive share repurchases continued during the quarter.
Investor relations leader Daniel O’Rourke said the company also provided investors with an enterprise value bridge in the appendix of prepared remarks due to recent M&A activity, the company’s convertible debt structure, and the magnitude of buybacks. O’Rourke added that strong operating performance and the first-quarter sale of the 8th Avenue pasta business enabled Post to keep net leverage flat while maintaining “significant flexibility for opportunistic capital allocation.”
Capital allocation and M&A outlook
Management reiterated an opportunistic posture toward acquisitions. When asked whether competitor activity in cereal might influence Post’s M&A approach, COO Nico Catoggio said the company’s strategy has not materially changed and that Post is not “particularly looking at a particular category” or mapping acquisitions to a specific segment.
Cereal trends, promotions, and product focus
On recent improvements in cereal category performance, Catoggio said the change in trajectory began in November and December and “coincides with SNAP,” which management currently views as driving trade-down behavior toward cereal and other value-oriented products. He noted that peanut butter trends improved over the same period. Still, he cautioned that the shift is recent and that the company needs “a few more months” to determine whether it represents an enduring change in the category.
Asked about competitive intensity and spending in cereal, Catoggio said Post’s strategy is unchanged. He explained that in the first quarter Post reduced promotional spending as it adjusted its assortment in channels that are more promotion-driven, in part “to avoid disruptions” while shelf changes were made. Longer term, he said the company will continue to evaluate investment opportunities and act when it sees an appropriate return.
Catoggio also said Post is investing in areas such as protein, fiber, and granola, adding that “you will see a lot more of that” from the company, with some products already reaching the market.
Foodservice normalization and egg dynamics
Management highlighted Foodservice as a key driver of the higher outlook, describing improved volumes in eggs and value-added eggs and explaining how normalization is shaping expectations for the rest of the year. Executives cited year-over-year benefits tied to avian influenza impacts in the prior fiscal year and a customer inventory reload that began in the fourth quarter and was completed in the first quarter. They characterized these as transitory benefits that should “fall away” sequentially into the second quarter.
Looking ahead, management said it expects the balance of the year to align more closely with historical trends, describing the business as targeting a 3% to 4% growth rate, with mix benefits helping achieve the segment’s algorithm.
When asked why the company believes the increased Foodservice normalized run rate is “sticky,” management pointed to the segment’s value proposition for operators, particularly products that help customers “take labor out of their system,” and said there remains runway for converting customers from shell eggs to value-added eggs. Executives said conditions have returned to a more normalized supply-and-demand environment.
On egg pricing, management said that with customer inventories rebalanced and supply matched to demand, the business becomes largely agnostic to egg prices and returns to a pass-through model. Executives said the pass-through typically operates with a roughly 90-day lag and that over the course of a year the company does not expect significant volatility based on historical experience.
Portfolio updates: Refrigerated Retail, pet, and RTD shakes
In Refrigerated Retail, management said the segment’s first quarter is typically the strongest due to holiday benefits, with Easter falling in early April and contributing to the second quarter. Executives also discussed private label momentum, saying the new private label business has had a “good early start,” with initial offerings in mashed potatoes and mac and cheese across two customers. Management said there is a pipeline to expand the private label book and that adding these offerings provides “two price points,” uses excess capacity, and creates a network leverage benefit.
On product development within side dishes, management said it is focused on protein and options to add protein to sides. Executives also noted small but growing club-channel success for a product called Wunderlich and said the company is considering ways to incorporate more protein into dinner side dishes.
In pet, management said category trends remain consistent, with dog softer than cat, driven by broader factors such as urbanization. For Post’s pet business, Catoggio said volumes have been improving sequentially, with improvements in Nutrish and Gravy Train tied to tested price points. Management said those price points will be targeted in a brand relaunch and that price tests on Nutrish in select retailers created a headwind to price/mix in the quarter. Executives added that the relaunch will involve changes to price pack architecture, which they expect should improve price per pound.
Management also addressed performance in Post’s broader portfolio and cadence considerations for the year. Beyond Foodservice, executives said the rest of the portfolio is largely tracking their initial outlook, with no material changes to call out. They noted typical second-quarter pressure from holiday shutdowns and deleveraging impacts across the portfolio, with Foodservice an exception given high plant utilization.
Finally, on the ready-to-drink shakes business, management said it is making progress on volume output but still faces challenges around cost and production efficiency and has not reached its targeted run rate. Executives said they are balancing attention between that business and Foodservice, which they described as a $500 million business showing strength and growth. Management said it does not see concerns about the longer-term category opportunity but remains focused on reaching desired profitability and run rate before considering expansion.
- Guidance: Management said adjusted EBITDA in Q1 exceeded expectations and guidance was significantly increased, driven by operating performance and an updated Foodservice normalized run rate.
- Capital allocation: The company continued aggressive share repurchases and said it retains flexibility for opportunistic allocation, with M&A becoming more interesting as valuation multiples decline.
- Operational updates: Executives said Foodservice is returning to normalized dynamics, Refrigerated Retail private label is starting well, and pet trends are stabilizing sequentially with a relaunch planned for key brands.
About Post (NYSE:POST)
Post Holdings, Inc is a consumer packaged goods company that operates as a holding company for a diverse portfolio of food and beverage brands. The company’s principal activities include the production, marketing and distribution of ready-to-eat cereal, refrigerated and frozen foods, and nutritional beverages. Through its operating segments—Post Consumer Brands, Foodservice, Refrigerated Side Dishes & Bakery, and Active Nutrition—Post Holdings delivers a broad array of products to retail grocers, convenience stores, foodservice operators and e-commerce channels.
The Post Consumer Brands segment features a variety of hot and cold cereals under names such as Honey Bunches of Oats, Shredded Wheat and Pebbles.
