Ameren (NYSE:AEE) management highlighted strong 2025 financial performance, an expanded capital plan, and new large-load agreements in Missouri during the company’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. Executives also reiterated 2026 earnings guidance and introduced a new long-term earnings growth outlook through 2030.
2025 results and updated growth outlook
Chairman, President and CEO Marty Lyons said Ameren delivered 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.03 per share, representing 8.6% growth over adjusted 2024 results of $4.63 per share. The company affirmed 2026 earnings per share guidance of $5.25 to $5.45.
Large-load agreements and Missouri tariff framework
Lyons said Ameren Missouri signed 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of large load electric service agreements (ESAs) in Missouri during the week of the call, calling them an important milestone while noting there are still development steps ahead, including project announcements, groundbreaking, and construction.
Ameren emphasized that its five-year financial plan assumes 1.2 GW of new load growth by 2030, consistent with its preferred resource plan, and that the 2.2 GW of executed ESAs represents upside to sales and earnings forecasts. Lyons said the signed ESAs provide “greater confidence” in delivering toward the upper end of the 6%–8% EPS growth range and could potentially support results above that range depending on ramp rates.
Management also discussed the Missouri Public Service Commission-approved Large Load Rate Structure, which applies to customers requesting 75 megawatts or more. Under the structure, management said the base rate is approximately $0.062 per kWh, and ESAs include terms such as a 12-year service commitment after ramp, a minimum demand charge of 80% of contracted capacity, termination provisions, and collateral requirements. Executives repeatedly emphasized that the tariff and ESA terms are designed to protect existing customers by ensuring data centers pay for connection costs and their share of ongoing cost of service.
On the project pipeline, Ameren said Missouri has 3.4 GW of potential new demand tied to transmission interconnection construction agreements (including projects associated with the executed ESAs), while downstate Illinois has 850 megawatts (MW) of potential demand tied to construction agreements. The company said it has received approximately $46 million in non-refundable payments from developers in Missouri and Illinois to cover the cost of transmission upgrades related to these agreements.
Capital investment, rate base growth, and financing plan
Ameren outlined a larger five-year capital plan, projecting $31.8 billion of planned infrastructure investment from 2026 through 2030, a 21% increase compared to the prior plan. Lyons and CFO Lenny Singh said the increase is primarily driven by robust expected generation investment needed to serve anticipated load growth and support reliability, as well as the roll-forward of the plan and refined cost estimates and timing.
The company expects this plan to drive 10.6% compound annual rate base growth from 2025 through 2030. In response to analyst questions about the gap between rate base growth and EPS growth, Lyons cited equity issuance dilution as a primary factor and also pointed to regulatory timing and the potential for improved earned returns as large-load sales become clearer.
On funding, Singh said Ameren expects to issue approximately $4 billion of equity from 2026 through 2030 and noted that 2026 equity needs are covered with a $600 million forward sales agreement expected to settle near year-end. He added that the company expects above-average equity issuance in 2027 and 2028 aligned with new generation investments. Management said a portion of equity needs could be met with hybrid debt securities that receive 50% equity credit from Moody’s and S&P, though it did not specify amounts. Singh also said the company expects approximately $2.85 billion of debt issuances in 2026 to fund maturing obligations and part of the year’s planned investment.
Operational performance, reliability, and regulatory updates
Ameren said its 2025 performance reflected significant infrastructure work and storm response. Lyons noted the service territory experienced approximately 30% more storms than the 10-year average, while the company’s investments helped prevent more than 56 million minutes of potential customer outages across Missouri and Illinois. Ameren said it benchmarked in the first quartile for safety and second quartile for SAIDI performance.
Singh said 2025 adjusted earnings excluded certain tax benefits across Ameren Transmission, Ameren Illinois natural gas, and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution tied to IRS guidance and related regulatory orders. Ameren reduced income tax expense by $86 million in 2025, which Singh said was a $0.32 per share benefit.
Management also cited sales strength in Missouri, with Singh reporting 1% overall weather-normalized sales growth and class growth of 0.5% residential and 1.5% commercial. He added that Ameren achieved $20 million in recurring O&M savings over the past two years from energy delivery process improvements and said productivity improved by about 25% where enhanced field work scheduling has been implemented.
In Illinois, Singh highlighted late-2025 rate review outcomes, including an Illinois Commerce Commission order approving a $79 million annual base rate increase for the natural gas distribution segment with a 9.6% ROE and a 50% equity ratio, effective in December. He also noted an ICC approval of a $48 million reconciliation adjustment tied to the 2024 revenue requirement, with new rates effective January 2026. Lyons said Illinois remains an important investment area and described the regulatory environment as stabilizing, while also pointing to the company’s filing of the required multi-year grid plan for 2028–2031 and expectation of an ICC decision later in 2026.
Ameren also discussed generation and transmission development, including progress toward a resource plan calling for 5.3 GW of new generation between 2025 and 2030. Lyons said nearly 2.7 GW is in progress, including the 50-MW Vandalia Energy Center solar facility placed into service in December and two additional solar facilities totaling 350 MW beginning final testing in January. He added that dual-fuel conversion work at the Audrain Energy Center is expected to be completed by year-end to add 700 MW of capacity on the coldest winter days. Lyons also noted the Missouri PSC approved a CCN for the 800-MW Big Hollow Natural Gas Energy Center and an accompanying 400-MW battery storage facility, targeted for service in 2028, and said the company anticipates filing a CCN later in 2026 for a 2.1-GW combined cycle facility expected to be in service in 2031.
Ameren’s board approved a 5.6% quarterly dividend increase to an annualized rate of $3.00 per share, which the company said marks its 13th consecutive year of dividend growth. Management said it expects dividend growth in line with long-term EPS growth and a payout ratio maintained within a 50%–60% range.
About Ameren (NYSE:AEE)
Ameren Corporation (NYSE: AEE) is an integrated energy company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, that provides electric and natural gas delivery and related services in portions of Missouri and Illinois. The company operates regulated utility businesses that serve a broad mix of residential, commercial and industrial customers, and it participates in wholesale energy markets and transmission operations that support reliable service across its service territories.
Ameren’s core activities include generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, distribution of natural gas, and the provision of customer energy solutions such as demand-side management and energy efficiency programs.
