Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 0.990-1.070 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 1.270. The company issued revenue guidance of $2.9 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q1 2026 guidance to 0.170-0.190 EPS.

Analyst Ratings Changes

Several analysts have issued reports on the company. Jones Trading dropped their price target on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Wall Street Zen upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Saturday, December 13th. Finally, Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Monday, December 29th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Geo Group currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $34.00.

Geo Group Stock Performance

GEO opened at $13.44 on Friday. The business’s 50-day simple moving average is $16.57 and its 200 day simple moving average is $18.34. Geo Group has a 52-week low of $12.81 and a 52-week high of $32.09. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 1.62. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.87 billion, a PE ratio of 7.91 and a beta of 0.73.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 7.42% and a net margin of 9.41%.The firm had revenue of $707.70 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $667.23 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $0.13 EPS. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. As a group, sell-side analysts expect that Geo Group will post 0.83 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and year-over-year growth: GEO reported Q4 revenue of $707.7M (up 16.5% YoY), topping analyst estimates and showing improving top-line momentum. Business Wire: Q4 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Founder returns as CEO: Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. George C. Zoley will resume the CEO role effective March 1, 2026, which investors may view as a stabilizing move given his long tenure. Business Wire: Corporate Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: EPS in line with estimates: GEO reported GAAP EPS of $0.25, matching consensus and up from $0.13 a year ago—earnings met expectations but didn’t surprise to the upside. Zacks: Earnings Match
• Negative Sentiment: Guidance well below Street expectations: GEO set FY‑2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), and provided revenue ranges slightly below/staggering versus estimates — the guidance cut is the primary driver of the stock weakness. Business Wire: Guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and reputational pressures persist: A denied rehearing on an injunction and ongoing litigation/activist shareholder criticisms (including disputes over human-rights related votes) increase operational and reputational risk. Courthouse News: No Rehearing
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction reflects mixed print: Several outlets note shares moved down after the release as weak guidance outweighed the revenue beat. Investing.com: Market Reaction

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Several hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its position in Geo Group by 245.1% during the second quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $26,000 after buying an additional 782 shares during the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after acquiring an additional 839 shares during the period. Militia Capital Partners LP boosted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 122.6% during the 2nd quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $165,000 after acquiring an additional 3,800 shares during the period. United Services Automobile Association acquired a new position in shares of Geo Group during the 1st quarter worth approximately $260,000. Finally, CIBC Asset Management Inc bought a new stake in Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at $205,000. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.