Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Reaches New 52-Week Low – Time to Sell?

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO)’s share price hit a new 52-week low on Thursday . The company traded as low as $13.00 and last traded at $13.4030, with a volume of 1696711 shares changing hands. The stock had previously closed at $15.83.

Key Headlines Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and EPS in line — GEO reported $707.7M of revenue (up 16.5% Y/Y), above consensus, and reported $0.25 EPS in Q4, matching street estimates; revenue strength is the main near-term bullish catalyst. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst backing remains — Jones Trading trimmed its price target from $37 to $33 but maintained a “Buy” rating, implying substantial upside from current levels and supporting positive sentiment. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: Leadership change announced — CEO J. David Donahue will retire effective Feb. 28 and founder/executive chairman Dr. George Zoley will return as Chairman & CEO under a new employment agreement; market reaction is mixed (stability/continuity vs. governance questions). Business Wire: Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Full Q4 materials available — earnings press release, slide deck and earnings call transcript are posted, providing detail for analysts and investors to model results and assumptions. Slide Deck Earnings Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below consensus — GEO gave FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), which is the primary bearish driver and explains some intra-day pressure despite the revenue beat. Press Release (guidance)
• Negative Sentiment: Legal risk persists — reports that GEO was denied a rehearing in litigation add regulatory/legal overhang that could affect valuation and investor sentiment. CourtHouse News

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

GEO has been the subject of a number of research reports. Jones Trading decreased their target price on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Friday. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, December 29th. Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Wall Street Zen raised Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $34.00.

Geo Group Trading Up 5.4%

The company has a market capitalization of $1.98 billion, a P/E ratio of 7.80 and a beta of 0.73. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 2.01. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $16.51 and a 200 day moving average of $18.26.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 EPS for the quarter, hitting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The business had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $667.23 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business posted $0.13 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. As a group, equities research analysts anticipate that Geo Group Inc will post 0.83 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the company. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. raised its position in shares of Geo Group by 4.6% during the 1st quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 75,766 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $2,213,000 after purchasing an additional 3,309 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its stake in Geo Group by 81.9% in the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. United Services Automobile Association bought a new stake in Geo Group during the first quarter valued at about $260,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC lifted its position in shares of Geo Group by 168.0% in the first quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 284,975 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $8,324,000 after acquiring an additional 178,622 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Yousif Capital Management LLC boosted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 2.5% in the second quarter. Yousif Capital Management LLC now owns 51,917 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $1,243,000 after acquiring an additional 1,256 shares during the period. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.