Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan said he sees a constructive U.S. backdrop taking shape as GDP expectations have “built” over recent months, consumer spending remains resilient in the bank’s internal data, and corporate activity in areas like IPOs and deal commentary is “strong.” Moynihan made the remarks during a keynote discussion at Bank of America’s 34th Annual Financial Services Conference.
Macro view: improving growth expectations and resilient spending
Moynihan described a shifting macro narrative over the past 15 to 18 months, noting that optimism after the election gave way to uncertainty tied to early-year policy changes, including tariffs, before estimates moved higher again. He said Bank of America’s research team now has 2026 GDP around 2.8%, emphasizing that the pace of upward revisions has been notable.
On the consumer, Moynihan said Bank of America’s data continues to show spending growth. He said consumers in January spent 5% more at Bank of America than in the prior January, with growth across low-, middle-, and high-wage cohorts. While he acknowledged that a “K-shaped economy” and affordability pressures are real, he said “it’s all growing.”
He also pointed to the labor market as supportive, saying major-firm forecasts do not show unemployment rising much above the mid-4% range in 2026. Moynihan added that rate cuts should be constructive if interest rates continue to come down.
Affordability and product positioning
Asked about the concept of a credit card interest rate cap, Moynihan said the industry has reflected on potential second-order impacts, including reduced credit availability and lower credit lines. He said Bank of America supports affordability and pointed to a number of existing initiatives the company has implemented over time, including:
- Lower overdraft-related limits, including a $10 threshold, and a large base of accounts with no overdraft capability.
- A short-term borrowing product that allows customers to borrow up to $500 for a $5 fee, which he said has been used by about eight million customers over the last four or five years.
- A “low, no-frills” credit card option with no rewards and a lower interest rate.
Moynihan said affordability is a complex issue and argued that Bank of America is “the most affordable company” for American consumers in banking, pointing to efficiency and cost-to-consumer metrics.
Regulation: “normalization,” capital rules, and supervisory materiality
Moynihan characterized the regulatory environment as moving toward a more normalized balance after years of what he described as “constant creeping” increases in capital and liquidity demands. He said the current leadership is taking time to conduct cost-benefit analysis so changes “stick to the ribs” and aren’t easily reversed.
He highlighted supervisory practices as a major issue, arguing that regulators should focus on materiality rather than citing immaterial errors in high-volume processes. Moynihan said a shift in tone could be as important as formal changes to capital rules, because it would allow banks to maintain strong systems without being penalized for trivial issues.
On pending capital proposals, including G-SIB recalibration and Basel-related changes, he said proposals are “coming, and soon,” and expects the outcome to be “constructive,” though “not…everything the industry wants.” He also cited data showing capital requirements rising by roughly 20% from 2019 to 2024 through behind-the-scenes math, even as he said industry risk did not materially increase over that period.
Strategy and targets: ROTCE, NII growth, and operating leverage
Moynihan reiterated the company’s return on tangible common equity target of 16% to 18%, noting Bank of America delivered “14% plus” last year. He said the company expects net interest income (NII) growth of 5% to 7% and operating leverage of 200 to 300 basis points, aided by repricing dynamics and growth assumptions including mid-single-digit loan growth and 2% to 3% deposit growth.
He said the company believes it can reach 16% ROTCE after eight quarters (with the current period described as quarter one of that path) and the higher end of the range after 12 quarters, assuming steady 2% to 3% economic growth and inflation remaining in check.
On expenses, Moynihan emphasized long-term discipline in headcount and investment. He said that from 2015 to 2025 the company maintained roughly the same number of employees despite business growth, while increasing technology development spending by roughly $2 billion per year versus earlier levels. He said headcount ended January around 213,000 and noted the company is “engineering out” roles while continuing to invest in technology and growth.
Business momentum: consumer primacy, wealth flows, payments, and markets scale
Across business segments, Moynihan said consumer banking continues to focus on driving primacy through core checking growth while using digitization and automation to manage costs. He provided historical context on branch and staffing reductions in consumer banking, while also noting build-outs in markets where the bank historically had little presence, including Ohio.
In wealth management, Moynihan said the company is targeting net new asset growth above 4%, up from 2% to 3% previously, and cited support from Merrill Edge growth and greater connectivity across the franchise. He said the company would not have stated the 4% to 5% net new asset growth target unless it believed there was a path to achieve it.
Moynihan also singled out the bank’s payments franchise, describing 15 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth and saying he expects that streak to continue this quarter. In global banking and markets, he said activity early in the quarter was consistent with expectations, with markets benefiting from typical early-year client activity. He added that the markets business remains capital intensive and operationally complex, citing billions of daily quotes and significant annual systems expenditure, but said the team has lowered the break-even point and improved performance in weaker quarters.
On international operations, Moynihan said the bank’s global businesses require global coverage across clients and products, and cited opportunities particularly in Europe and Asia. He said international operations represent “20-odd%” of the company, while also emphasizing that the U.S. consumer and wealth opportunity set remains large.
Finally, Moynihan said Bank of America’s capital deployment has focused on returning incremental capital to shareholders—paying the dividend and using the remainder for repurchases—while funding growth initiatives. He said the company’s capital ratios have been drifting down toward targets, and that additional clarity on regulatory math will inform next steps.
About Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)
Bank of America Corporation is a multinational financial services company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. It provides a broad array of banking, investment, asset management and related financial and risk management products and services to individual consumers, small- and middle-market businesses, large corporations, governments and institutional investors. The firm operates through consumer banking, global wealth and investment management, global banking and markets businesses, offering capabilities across lending, deposits, payments, advisory and capital markets.
Its consumer-facing offerings include checking and savings accounts, mortgages, home equity lending, auto loans, credit cards and small business banking, supported by a nationwide branch network and digital channels.
