Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Shares Gap Down – What’s Next?

Shares of Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) gapped down before the market opened on Tuesday . The stock had previously closed at $10.06, but opened at $9.27. Hillman Solutions shares last traded at $9.1350, with a volume of 323,621 shares changing hands.

Key Stories Impacting Hillman Solutions

Here are the key news stories impacting Hillman Solutions this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Record full‑year performance — Net sales rose to $1.55B (+5.4%) and Hillman returned to GAAP net income of $40.3M for 2025; adjusted EBITDA increased to $275.3M, supporting improved profitability metrics. Quiver Quant / Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: 2026 guidance implies growth — management guided net sales $1.60–$1.70B, adjusted EBITDA $275–$285M and free cash flow $100–$120M, signaling management expects recovery in cash generation and modest revenue expansion. Guidance / Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Leverage and capital returns — gross and net debt declined year‑over‑year, net‑debt/EBITDA improved to ~2.4x, and the company repurchased ~1.4M shares, supporting shareholder value. Balance Sheet / Press Release
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 EPS in‑line — Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.10, matching consensus; the earnings call transcript provides management color on results and strategy. Zacks Earnings Note Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue miss and Q4 weakness — Q4 net sales grew 4.5% to $365.1M but fell short of analyst expectations, a headline that pressured the stock. Investing.com Revenue Miss
• Negative Sentiment: Weaker cash flow and rising inventories — operating cash flow fell to $105.2M and free cash flow decreased to $35.1M in 2025 (vs. $183.3M and $98.1M in 2024); inventories rose sharply, creating near‑term cash drag. Those metrics raised concern despite guidance calling for FCF recovery. Cash Flow / Press Release
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and one‑off items — litigation and other adjusting items impacted comparability; management disclosed settlements/accruals that add uncertainty to near‑term results. Press Release / Adjustments

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of analysts have recently commented on HLMN shares. Canaccord Genuity Group reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $15.00 price target on shares of Hillman Solutions in a research report on Monday, November 24th. Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Hillman Solutions in a report on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Wall Street Zen upgraded Hillman Solutions from a “buy” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Saturday, January 17th. Four investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Hillman Solutions has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $11.83.

Hillman Solutions Stock Down 9.1%

The company has a market cap of $1.81 billion, a P/E ratio of 48.33 and a beta of 1.65. The company has a quick ratio of 0.77, a current ratio of 2.46 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56. The company has a fifty day moving average of $9.51 and a 200 day moving average of $9.38.

Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) last released its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, February 17th. The company reported $0.10 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, meeting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.10. Hillman Solutions had a return on equity of 9.71% and a net margin of 2.44%.The company’s quarterly revenue was up 4.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $0.10 earnings per share. On average, research analysts anticipate that Hillman Solutions Corp. will post 0.58 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Hillman Solutions

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in HLMN. Reinhart Partners LLC. grew its stake in Hillman Solutions by 4.2% during the third quarter. Reinhart Partners LLC. now owns 10,471,532 shares of the company’s stock valued at $96,129,000 after acquiring an additional 418,313 shares in the last quarter. Burgundy Asset Management Ltd. boosted its holdings in shares of Hillman Solutions by 18.0% during the 2nd quarter. Burgundy Asset Management Ltd. now owns 11,202,558 shares of the company’s stock valued at $79,986,000 after purchasing an additional 1,712,688 shares during the last quarter. Squarepoint Ops LLC purchased a new position in shares of Hillman Solutions during the second quarter valued at about $1,760,000. Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC increased its holdings in shares of Hillman Solutions by 243.4% in the second quarter. Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC now owns 239,960 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,713,000 after purchasing an additional 170,077 shares during the last quarter. Finally, American Century Companies Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Hillman Solutions by 65.9% in the second quarter. American Century Companies Inc. now owns 7,480,165 shares of the company’s stock worth $53,408,000 after purchasing an additional 2,972,293 shares during the last quarter. 98.11% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About Hillman Solutions

Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) is a leading provider of hardware and related products to the home improvement, retail, industrial and manufacturing markets. The company’s portfolio encompasses key duplication systems and security solutions, hardware essentials such as fasteners and anchors, signage and labeling products, and outdoor and seasonal items. Hillman’s product offerings are sold through a network of major home improvement retailers, wholesalers, independent distributors and other specialty outlets.

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Hillman grew from a family-run enterprise into a global supplier of hardware solutions.