Vistra (NYSE:VST) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results

Vistra (NYSE:VST) posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $2.18 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.45 by ($0.27), Zacks reports. The company had revenue of $4.58 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.75 billion. Vistra had a return on equity of 64.04% and a net margin of 6.70%.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra’s conference call:

• Vistra delivered a record year with approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and about $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above prior guidance midpoints.
• The company expanded its dispatchable fleet through the closed Lotus deal (~2,600 MW) and the announced Cogentrix acquisition (~5,500 MW), which management expects to drive mid- to high-single-digit adjusted free cash flow per share accretion over 2027–2029.
• Vistra has contracted roughly 3.8 GW of nuclear capacity under long-term 20-year PPAs with Amazon and Meta, creating durable, low-volatility cash flows and supporting uprates/license extensions that management says could materially boost long-term cash generation.
• Management cites a structurally stronger U.S. demand backdrop—driven by data centers and rising electricity use—that should increase utilization of existing assets, but notes the most significant hyperscaler-driven tightening likely ramps in late 2027–2028, so timing remains uncertain.
• The balance sheet and capital plan look constructive—projecting >$10 billion cash through 2027, roughly $3 billion available after planned returns and growth investments, ~$1.8 billion remaining repurchase authorization, and a target net debt/EBITDA of ~2.3x by year-end 2027.

Vistra Trading Down 1.9%

NYSE:VST traded down $3.40 on Friday, reaching $173.42. The stock had a trading volume of 5,492,681 shares, compared to its average volume of 5,491,625. Vistra has a 12-month low of $90.51 and a 12-month high of $219.82. The company has a market cap of $58.76 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.61, a P/E/G ratio of 1.07 and a beta of 1.40. The firm’s fifty day moving average is $163.44 and its two-hundred day moving average is $180.87. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.74, a current ratio of 0.99 and a quick ratio of 0.88.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, March 31st. Investors of record on Friday, March 20th will be paid a $0.228 dividend. This represents a $0.91 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.5%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, March 20th. This is a positive change from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is presently 32.85%.

Insider Activity at Vistra

In other Vistra news, CEO James A. Burke sold 22,251 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, December 11th. The shares were sold at an average price of $162.05, for a total value of $3,605,774.55. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer directly owned 297,998 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $48,290,575.90. The trade was a 6.95% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. 1.42% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Vistra

Several hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of VST. State Street Corp increased its position in Vistra by 2.7% during the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 16,474,869 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,657,891,000 after purchasing an additional 432,028 shares during the last quarter. Invesco Ltd. boosted its holdings in shares of Vistra by 0.8% in the 3rd quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 4,572,642 shares of the company’s stock valued at $895,872,000 after purchasing an additional 35,258 shares during the last quarter. Janus Henderson Group PLC grew its stake in shares of Vistra by 2.3% during the 4th quarter. Janus Henderson Group PLC now owns 2,958,740 shares of the company’s stock valued at $477,337,000 after buying an additional 65,795 shares during the period. Neuberger Berman Group LLC increased its holdings in shares of Vistra by 1.0% during the 4th quarter. Neuberger Berman Group LLC now owns 2,077,657 shares of the company’s stock worth $335,209,000 after buying an additional 21,113 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. raised its position in shares of Vistra by 2.2% in the 4th quarter. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. now owns 2,028,796 shares of the company’s stock worth $327,306,000 after buying an additional 43,213 shares during the period. 90.88% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

More Vistra News

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Operational beat and AI-driven demand — Vistra said core profit beat estimates, citing stronger power demand driven in part by AI-related loads; this supports the company’s earnings power and growth thesis. Vistra beats quarterly core profit estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Record 2025 operating results and constructive 2026 guidance — Vistra reported Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of ~$5.91B and strong adjusted free cash flow, and its 2026 guidance was presented as reinforcing a multi‑year growth path, which underpins longer‑term valuation. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Fleet expansion improves market positioning — Announcements about expanding Vistra’s dispatchable fleet should boost its exposure to power market upside and demand from data centers and other large users. Fleet expansion article
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst view unchanged despite trim — Wells Fargo trimmed its price target slightly from $236 to $234 but kept an “overweight” rating, implying meaningful upside; the small target cut is a mild signal but not a rating downgrade. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: More color available — Earnings call transcript, slides and multiple analyst write-ups (Zacks, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo/Fool) provide detail for investors to parse operational vs. accounting impacts. Zacks Q4 metrics
• Negative Sentiment: GAAP earnings and revenue misses; large unrealized hedge losses — The quarter showed a sizable EPS and revenue miss against some street estimates, and an $808M non‑cash unrealized commodity hedging loss depressed GAAP results, which likely pressured the stock. Press Release / Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: Relative performance concerns — Analyst comparisons (e.g., Zacks piece contrasting VST vs. NRG) note peers may offer stronger ROE, yield or recent performance, which can shift investor preference within the utility/power space. VST vs NRG

Analysts Set New Price Targets

A number of research firms have recently issued reports on VST. Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price target on shares of Vistra from $236.00 to $234.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Friday. Bank of America dropped their price objective on Vistra from $231.00 to $218.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Monday, January 12th. Jefferies Financial Group raised Vistra from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and lifted their price objective for the stock from $191.00 to $203.00 in a report on Tuesday, February 10th. Evercore upped their target price on Vistra from $237.00 to $243.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report on Friday, November 7th. Finally, Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Vistra in a research report on Monday, December 29th. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Vistra currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $236.60.

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.

Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.