Riskified (NYSE:RSKD) Posts Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.02 EPS

Riskified (NYSE:RSKD) issued its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday. The company reported $0.12 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.10 by $0.02, FiscalAI reports. The business had revenue of $99.33 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $97.21 million. Riskified had a negative net margin of 11.04% and a negative return on equity of 8.12%.

Here are the key takeaways from Riskified’s conference call:

• Record Q4 results and profitability: Q4 revenue was $99.3M, the company reported its first-ever quarter of GAAP profitability (Q4 net income $5.8M) and Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $17.7M (18% margin); full‑year revenue was $344.6M with Adjusted EBITDA up >55% YoY.
• 2026 guidance is for revenue of $372–384M (8–11% growth), non‑GAAP gross profit growth of 7–12% (midpoint targeting double‑digit acceleration), and Adjusted EBITDA of $26–34M (≈8% margin), with results sensitive to merchant timing and macro factors.
• Strong capital position and shareholder returns: the company holds ~$298M in cash, zero debt, expects ~ $40M in free cash flow in 2026, has repurchased ~52M shares since 2023 and the board authorized an additional $75M buyback (total available ≈$84M).
• Commercial momentum and product expansion: net dollar retention improved to 105% (ADR ≈100%), Q4 delivered the highest quarterly new‑business wins since the IPO, multi‑product merchant adoption rose ~50%, and non‑core products generated ~$10M in 2025 with a $15–20M target for 2026.
• Material FX headwind: appreciation of the Israeli shekel versus the USD is expected to compress Adjusted EBITDA margin by ~400 basis points (roughly $14M), increasing reported operating expense pressure in 2026.

Riskified Stock Down 5.4%

Shares of NYSE RSKD opened at $4.46 on Thursday. The firm’s 50-day moving average price is $4.60 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $4.69. Riskified has a 52-week low of $3.94 and a 52-week high of $5.68. The stock has a market capitalization of $718.19 million, a P/E ratio of -19.37 and a beta of 1.33.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in RSKD. Raymond James Financial Inc. bought a new stake in Riskified in the second quarter valued at $36,000. Man Group plc acquired a new stake in shares of Riskified in the 4th quarter worth about $50,000. Orion Porfolio Solutions LLC bought a new stake in Riskified in the 2nd quarter valued at about $54,000. Virtu Financial LLC acquired a new position in Riskified during the 3rd quarter valued at about $51,000. Finally, Invesco Ltd. bought a new position in Riskified in the 1st quarter worth about $51,000. 58.98% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Key Riskified News

Here are the key news stories impacting Riskified this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 beats and first GAAP profit — Riskified reported Q4 revenue of $99.33M and EPS of $0.12, topping consensus estimates and announcing the company’s first-ever GAAP profit, which signals progress on the shift to profitable growth. Article Title
• Positive Sentiment: Management emphasizes “profitable growth” pivot — The earnings call highlighted a deliberate move from growth-at-all-costs to profitable, sustainable expansion; management provided slides and commentary supporting the pivot. Article Title
• Positive Sentiment: Product expansion could drive future revenue — Riskified announced an expansion of its AI Agent Intelligence to secure merchant-native AI shopping assistants, which could unlock new enterprise demand as retailers adopt AI features. Article Title
• Neutral Sentiment: FY‑2026 revenue guidance roughly in line with street — Management gave a revenue range (~$372M–$384M) that sits near consensus, but EPS guidance was not detailed in headlines, leaving some uncertainty about FY profitability trajectory. Article Title
• Negative Sentiment: Underlying profitability metrics still a concern — Despite the Q4 GAAP profit, the company reported negative net margin and negative return on equity on a trailing basis, and some sell‑side models still forecast a negative EPS for the year, which can temper enthusiasm. Article Title
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction reflects caution — Investors appear to be discounting the beat because guidance was conservative/imbalanced (range vs. single-point upside) and questions remain around sustainability of the GAAP profit and margin recovery. Article Title

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

RSKD has been the subject of several recent analyst reports. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised shares of Riskified from an “underweight” rating to a “neutral” rating and set a $6.00 price objective for the company in a report on Friday, November 14th. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Riskified from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Sunday, November 16th. Weiss Ratings reissued a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of Riskified in a report on Monday, December 29th. UBS Group upped their price objective on Riskified from $5.00 to $5.50 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research note on Thursday, November 13th. Finally, DA Davidson reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $6.00 target price on shares of Riskified in a research report on Thursday, November 13th. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, three have assigned a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $5.89.

About Riskified

Riskified is a technology company specializing in e-commerce fraud prevention and revenue optimization for online merchants. Its platform combines machine learning, behavioral analytics and proprietary risk models to assess the legitimacy of transactions in real time. By offering a chargeback guarantee, Riskified assumes the financial liability for approved orders that later turn out to be fraudulent, allowing retailers to focus on growth rather than dispute management.

The company’s core product suite addresses various aspects of the online shopping lifecycle, including order approval, account takeover protection and policy compliance.