Vistra (NYSE:VST) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $1.67 EPS

Vistra (NYSE:VST) posted its quarterly earnings data on Friday. The company reported $0.76 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.43 by ($1.67), FiscalAI reports. Vistra had a net margin of 11.52% and a return on equity of 105.64%. The business had revenue of $4.02 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.46 billion.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra’s conference call:

• Positive Sentiment: Vistra reported second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up more than 30% year over year, driven by stronger generation results, favorable hedging, higher PJM capacity revenue, asset contributions, and solid retail performance.
• Positive Sentiment: Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion–$7.6 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth of $3.925 billion–$4.725 billion, expressing confidence in achieving at least the midpoint.
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra sees sustained power-demand growth in ERCOT and PJM, including record summer peaks and continued data-center, industrial reshoring, electrification, and population-growth opportunities. The company also committed up to $1 billion to Helix Digital Infrastructure and will serve as its preferred power partner.
• Negative Sentiment: Lower ERCOT forward prices are creating a headwind for 2027, and management said the current outlook trends toward the lower end of its $7.4 billion–$7.8 billion Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range, although PJM strength, hedging, and nuclear production tax credits provide offsets.
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra expects more than $10 billion of available cash in 2026–2027, with approximately $3 billion allocated to shareholder returns and $4.5 billion–$5 billion earmarked for growth investments. Management retains flexibility to expand buybacks beyond the remaining $1.2 billion authorization and is pursuing additional investment-grade credit upgrades.

Vistra Stock Performance

NYSE VST traded down $0.73 during trading on Friday, reaching $140.65. 7,848,854 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 5,015,867. Vistra has a fifty-two week low of $132.66 and a fifty-two week high of $219.82. The stock has a market capitalization of $47.42 billion, a P/E ratio of 23.56 and a beta of 1.41. The business has a 50 day moving average price of $155.33 and a 200-day moving average price of $157.21. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.51, a current ratio of 0.90 and a quick ratio of 0.79.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 21st will be paid a dividend of $0.23 per share. The ex-dividend date is Monday, September 21st. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.7%. This is a boost from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is presently 15.41%.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

VST has been the topic of several recent research reports. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $187.00 price target on shares of Vistra and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 16th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their target price on Vistra from $240.00 to $231.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, April 30th. Zacks Research upgraded Vistra from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Monday, July 20th. Raymond James Financial set a $208.00 price target on Vistra in a research report on Monday, April 27th. Finally, Weiss Ratings upgraded Vistra from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research note on Friday, July 31st. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $229.88.

Insider Activity at Vistra

In other Vistra news, Director Scott B. Helm sold 25,000 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, June 16th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total value of $4,000,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 232,200 shares in the company, valued at $37,152,000. The trade was a 9.72% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CAO Margaret Montemayor sold 5,000 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, May 27th. The stock was sold at an average price of $164.96, for a total value of $824,800.00. Following the sale, the chief accounting officer directly owned 14,360 shares in the company, valued at $2,368,825.60. This represents a 25.83% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Insiders sold 41,588 shares of company stock valued at $6,739,227 over the last three months. Company insiders own 0.92% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Mcguire Capital Advisors Inc. acquired a new position in Vistra during the fourth quarter worth about $28,000. Kemnay Advisory Services Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Vistra during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Strive Financial Group LLC bought a new stake in shares of Vistra during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $33,000. IFC & Insurance Marketing Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Vistra during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $35,000. Finally, Strive Asset Management LLC acquired a new position in Vistra during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $38,000. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% year over year to $1.767 billion, supported by strong power-generation performance and elevated demand during periods of extreme heat. Management reaffirmed its full-year financial guidance. Vistra Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Analysts continue to view Vistra as a potential beneficiary of rising electricity consumption from artificial-intelligence infrastructure and data centers, including potential large-scale projects in the United States. Its generation fleet, nuclear assets and clean-power investments could support longer-term demand. Vistra Is Seen As A Beneficiary Of Rising AI Power Demand
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.23 per share and a semiannual dividend on its Series A preferred stock, reinforcing the company’s income-return strategy. Is Vistra’s Bigger Dividend and AI Power Demand Story Altering The Investment Case
• Neutral Sentiment: Before the release, expectations were elevated because estimates called for sharply higher revenue and EPS, driven by clean-power demand, hedging activity, nuclear generation and contributions from the Lotus business. Vistra to Report Q2 Earnings
• Negative Sentiment: Second-quarter EPS was $0.76 versus the $2.43 analyst consensus, while revenue of $4.02 billion fell well short of the $5.46 billion estimate. Vistra Earnings Data
• Negative Sentiment: GAAP net income was $305 million and included a $472 million unrealized loss on commodity hedges that are expected to settle in future years. The hedge-related loss caused quarterly profit to slip even as the underlying power business strengthened. Vistra Quarterly Profit Slips on Hedging Losses

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.

Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.