Baldwin Insurance Group (NASDAQ:BWIN) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results

Baldwin Insurance Group (NASDAQ:BWIN) announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $0.31 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.02, FiscalAI reports. Baldwin Insurance Group had a negative net margin of 2.25% and a positive return on equity of 12.62%. The company had revenue of $347.28 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $351.75 million. During the same period last year, the firm posted $0.27 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 5.3% compared to the same quarter last year.

Here are the key takeaways from Baldwin Insurance Group’s conference call:

• AI as an enabler — Management argues AI will amplify winners, not replace them, because Baldwin’s embedded distribution and proprietary products (Westwood, Coverage Navigator, MSI) plus early AI integration create a durable moat and have already delivered productivity gains such as digital agents binding policies.
• Profitability expansion — Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% in Q4 to $69.6M and full-year adjusted EBITDA grew 9% to $341.5M, with adjusted diluted EPS up 11% for the year, reflecting margin expansion and operating leverage despite revenue headwinds.
• Revenue headwinds and GAAP loss — Q4 total organic revenue growth was only 3% (core commissions +5%) and the company posted a GAAP net loss of $43.7M, driven by timing-related declines (22% drop in profit-sharing), Medicare disruption, the QBE builder transition, and an IS revenue-recognition procedural change.
• CAC and partnerships / capital actions — Baldwin closed CAC, OBE and Capstone (≈$350M pro forma revenue), expects ~ $400M revenue and ~$110M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 post-synergies (targeting $43M cost synergies with ~$25M already actioned), and the board authorized a $250M opportunistic share repurchase program.
• Guidance and balance sheet — 2026 guidance calls for $2.01–$2.05B revenue, adjusted EBITDA $460–$480M and mid-single-digit organic growth that should accelerate to double digits by Q4, while leverage sits at 4.1x after a $600M term loan increase; execution of synergies and market rate/exposure trends will determine actual outcomes.

Baldwin Insurance Group Stock Up 25.6%

Shares of BWIN traded up $4.74 during mid-day trading on Friday, hitting $23.23. 3,245,935 shares of the company’s stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 1,671,627. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.45, a current ratio of 1.15 and a quick ratio of 1.15. Baldwin Insurance Group has a 52 week low of $15.88 and a 52 week high of $47.15. The company has a market cap of $2.76 billion, a PE ratio of -47.41, a P/E/G ratio of 0.68 and a beta of 1.33. The company has a 50-day simple moving average of $22.26 and a 200 day simple moving average of $25.90.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several analysts recently commented on the company. UBS Group dropped their price objective on Baldwin Insurance Group from $52.00 to $47.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, November 10th. Wells Fargo & Company lowered their price target on Baldwin Insurance Group from $27.00 to $21.00 and set an “equal weight” rating for the company in a report on Friday. Wall Street Zen upgraded Baldwin Insurance Group from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, February 7th. BMO Capital Markets decreased their price objective on Baldwin Insurance Group from $34.00 to $33.00 and set a “market perform” rating for the company in a research report on Thursday, December 4th. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their target price on Baldwin Insurance Group from $33.00 to $28.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, January 7th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating, four have assigned a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $31.17.

Insider Activity at Baldwin Insurance Group

In related news, insider James Morgan Roche sold 80,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Monday, December 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $24.03, for a total transaction of $1,922,400.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider owned 42,113 shares in the company, valued at approximately $1,011,975.39. This represents a 65.51% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Insiders have sold a total of 255,000 shares of company stock valued at $6,119,000 over the last 90 days. Insiders own 18.51% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Baldwin Insurance Group

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. XTX Topco Ltd acquired a new stake in Baldwin Insurance Group in the fourth quarter valued at $580,000. VARCOV Co. bought a new position in Baldwin Insurance Group during the fourth quarter worth about $517,000. Twinbeech Capital LP acquired a new stake in shares of Baldwin Insurance Group in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $908,000. Balyasny Asset Management L.P. acquired a new position in Baldwin Insurance Group in the 4th quarter valued at $7,247,000. Finally, AQR Capital Management LLC bought a new stake in Baldwin Insurance Group during the fourth quarter worth about $307,000. 77.49% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Key Headlines Impacting Baldwin Insurance Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Baldwin Insurance Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Board authorizes up to $250 million share repurchase program — a meaningful capital-return action that can support the stock and reduce share count. Business Wire: $250M Repurchase Program
• Positive Sentiment: Raymond James upgraded BWIN to a “strong-buy” and raised its price target to $30 (from $20), signaling analyst conviction and implying ~29% upside from the current price. Benzinga: Raymond James Upgrade
• Positive Sentiment: Q4 earnings beat: BWIN reported $0.31 EPS vs. consensus $0.29, and EPS improved vs. prior year; these results (and a slide deck/call) helped underpin today’s positive sentiment. MarketBeat: Q4 Results & Conference Call
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic partnership with Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation could expand distribution channels for Baldwin’s products and support future revenue growth. TMCNet: Fairway Partnership
• Positive Sentiment: TD Cowen initiated coverage (new analyst attention can increase liquidity and interest). AmericanBankingNews: TD Cowen Coverage Initiation
• Neutral Sentiment: Investor materials and presentation (Q4 slide deck and call) published — useful for modeling but not an immediate catalyst. Seeking Alpha: Q4 Presentation
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst note / valuation pieces reviewing the Fairway partnership and BWIN valuation provide context but do not themselves move fundamentals. Yahoo Finance: Valuation After Partnership
• Negative Sentiment: Wells Fargo cut its price target to $21 and moved to an “equal weight” rating, implying downside from the current level and adding downward pressure on sentiment. TickerReport/Benzinga: Wells Fargo PT Cut
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue slightly missed estimates for the quarter ($347.3M vs. $351.8M est.), and the company still reported a negative net margin — items investors will watch for margin recovery and top-line momentum. Zacks: Q4 Metrics & Revenue vs Estimates

Baldwin Insurance Group Company Profile

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc (NASDAQ: BWIN) is a specialty insurance and surety firm that underwrites contract bonds, commercial insurance policies and related risk-management services. Its core offerings include contract and commercial surety, which provide performance and payment guarantees to obligees in construction, service and public-sector projects. In addition, the company delivers complementary commercial lines coverages designed to mitigate liability, property and workers’ compensation exposures.

Through a network of regional agency offices primarily across the Midwestern United States, Baldwin Insurance Group serves contractors, developers, small and mid-sized businesses as well as municipal and public-sector clients.