Vistra (NYSE:VST) Issues Earnings Results

Vistra (NYSE:VST) issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $2.18 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $2.45 by ($0.27), Zacks reports. Vistra had a net margin of 6.70% and a return on equity of 64.04%. The firm had revenue of $4.58 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.75 billion.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra’s conference call:

• Vistra delivered a record year with approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and about $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above prior guidance midpoints.
• The company expanded its dispatchable fleet through the closed Lotus deal (~2,600 MW) and the announced Cogentrix acquisition (~5,500 MW), which management expects to drive mid- to high-single-digit adjusted free cash flow per share accretion over 2027–2029.
• Vistra has contracted roughly 3.8 GW of nuclear capacity under long-term 20-year PPAs with Amazon and Meta, creating durable, low-volatility cash flows and supporting uprates/license extensions that management says could materially boost long-term cash generation.
• Management cites a structurally stronger U.S. demand backdrop—driven by data centers and rising electricity use—that should increase utilization of existing assets, but notes the most significant hyperscaler-driven tightening likely ramps in late 2027–2028, so timing remains uncertain.
• The balance sheet and capital plan look constructive—projecting >$10 billion cash through 2027, roughly $3 billion available after planned returns and growth investments, ~$1.8 billion remaining repurchase authorization, and a target net debt/EBITDA of ~2.3x by year-end 2027.

Vistra Stock Down 1.9%

VST traded down $3.40 on Friday, reaching $173.42. 5,492,681 shares of the company traded hands, compared to its average volume of 5,491,625. The company has a market cap of $58.76 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.61, a PEG ratio of 1.07 and a beta of 1.40. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.74, a current ratio of 0.99 and a quick ratio of 0.88. The stock’s 50 day moving average price is $163.44 and its 200-day moving average price is $180.87. Vistra has a 52-week low of $90.51 and a 52-week high of $219.82.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, March 31st. Investors of record on Friday, March 20th will be given a dividend of $0.228 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, March 20th. This is a boost from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. This represents a $0.91 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.5%. Vistra’s payout ratio is presently 32.85%.

Insider Activity

In other news, CEO James A. Burke sold 22,251 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, December 11th. The shares were sold at an average price of $162.05, for a total transaction of $3,605,774.55. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 297,998 shares in the company, valued at $48,290,575.90. The trade was a 6.95% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. 1.42% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the business. Empowered Funds LLC increased its position in Vistra by 24.1% during the first quarter. Empowered Funds LLC now owns 20,190 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,371,000 after buying an additional 3,920 shares during the last quarter. Woodline Partners LP boosted its stake in shares of Vistra by 40.7% during the 1st quarter. Woodline Partners LP now owns 28,744 shares of the company’s stock worth $3,376,000 after acquiring an additional 8,312 shares in the last quarter. Focus Partners Wealth boosted its stake in shares of Vistra by 37.3% during the 1st quarter. Focus Partners Wealth now owns 7,828 shares of the company’s stock worth $920,000 after acquiring an additional 2,125 shares in the last quarter. Sivia Capital Partners LLC acquired a new position in shares of Vistra during the 2nd quarter valued at about $269,000. Finally, Slocum Gordon & Co LLP raised its stake in shares of Vistra by 20.0% in the 2nd quarter. Slocum Gordon & Co LLP now owns 1,200 shares of the company’s stock valued at $233,000 after acquiring an additional 200 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company’s stock.

Key Stories Impacting Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Operational beat and AI-driven demand — Vistra said core profit beat estimates, citing stronger power demand driven in part by AI-related loads; this supports the company’s earnings power and growth thesis. Vistra beats quarterly core profit estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Record 2025 operating results and constructive 2026 guidance — Vistra reported Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of ~$5.91B and strong adjusted free cash flow, and its 2026 guidance was presented as reinforcing a multi‑year growth path, which underpins longer‑term valuation. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Fleet expansion improves market positioning — Announcements about expanding Vistra’s dispatchable fleet should boost its exposure to power market upside and demand from data centers and other large users. Fleet expansion article
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst view unchanged despite trim — Wells Fargo trimmed its price target slightly from $236 to $234 but kept an “overweight” rating, implying meaningful upside; the small target cut is a mild signal but not a rating downgrade. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: More color available — Earnings call transcript, slides and multiple analyst write-ups (Zacks, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo/Fool) provide detail for investors to parse operational vs. accounting impacts. Zacks Q4 metrics
• Negative Sentiment: GAAP earnings and revenue misses; large unrealized hedge losses — The quarter showed a sizable EPS and revenue miss against some street estimates, and an $808M non‑cash unrealized commodity hedging loss depressed GAAP results, which likely pressured the stock. Press Release / Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: Relative performance concerns — Analyst comparisons (e.g., Zacks piece contrasting VST vs. NRG) note peers may offer stronger ROE, yield or recent performance, which can shift investor preference within the utility/power space. VST vs NRG

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of research analysts recently issued reports on the company. KeyCorp started coverage on Vistra in a report on Monday, November 24th. They set an “overweight” rating and a $217.00 target price on the stock. Wells Fargo & Company dropped their target price on shares of Vistra from $236.00 to $234.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a report on Friday. Bank of America reduced their target price on shares of Vistra from $231.00 to $218.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Monday, January 12th. The Goldman Sachs Group upgraded shares of Vistra from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $205.00 price target on the stock in a research report on Friday, February 6th. Finally, BMO Capital Markets increased their price objective on Vistra from $230.00 to $244.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Monday, January 12th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Vistra has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $236.60.

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra (NYSE: VST) is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company’s operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.

Vistra’s core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.