Energy Vault (NYSE:NRGV) forecast 2027 revenue of $600 million to $700 million and its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, as the energy storage company prepares for a fourth-quarter revenue surge following a decline in third-quarter sales.
Management narrowed its 2026 revenue outlook to $290 million to $310 million, the upper half of its previous range. Chairman and CEO Robert Piconi said the company expects about $250 million of revenue in the fourth quarter, driven by the timing of contracted deliveries and project milestones.
For 2027, Energy Vault projected adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to $50 million. Piconi said much of next year’s revenue is expected to come from already contracted build-and-transfer projects, while most projects the company plans to own and operate are expected to come online in 2028.
Third-Quarter Revenue Fell as Margins Benefited From Refund
Third-quarter revenue fell 61% year over year to $13.1 million. CFO Nitin Dahiya said the decline reflected the expected timing of shipments and project milestones. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 rose 4% to $52 million.
The company reported a GAAP net loss of $28.2 million, or $0.17 per share, and an adjusted net loss of $0.14 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $14.7 million, compared with a loss of $6 million a year earlier.
GAAP gross margin was 71%, while adjusted gross margin was 81%. Both figures included a $4.3 million tariff refund. Without that benefit, GAAP gross margin would have been 37.9% and adjusted gross margin 48%, Dahiya said. Energy Vault maintained a full-year GAAP gross margin forecast of 20% to 22%.
Adjusted operating expenses rose $9 million year over year to $25.2 million, primarily because of project development and legal expenses associated with expanding the owned-and-operated platform, as well as higher bonus accruals. Dahiya said he expects the pace of expense growth to slow next year.
Backlog Supports 2027 Outlook
Energy Vault’s backlog reached $2.3 billion as of Nov. 10, up about 147% from a year earlier. Piconi said approximately 35% to 40% of that backlog is expected to convert over the following 12 to 15 months.
The backlog included about $825 million in build-and-transfer projects and approximately $1.5 billion in build-own-operate projects. Piconi said total backlog could approach $3 billion by year-end, with potential additions from both businesses.
Responding to an analyst’s estimate that backlog covered roughly 85% of the midpoint of 2027 revenue guidance, Piconi said the estimate was “roughly right” and that a high percentage of the forecast was already covered.
An existing 1.25-gigawatt integrated power agreement will contribute an important portion of 2027 revenue, though less than half of the total, Piconi said. He added that deliveries under the agreement have started this quarter.
Projects Advance as Company Builds Cash
Energy Vault ended the quarter with $236 million in total cash, including $55 million of restricted cash. That was an $88 million increase from the prior quarter. Corporate-level recourse debt declined by $12 million sequentially to $221 million.
The company expects to end 2026 with $170 million to $200 million in cash and further reduce corporate-level recourse debt. Dahiya said the year-end cash outlook does not assume an additional capital raise at the parent company, though project-level financing remains part of the plan.
Among its development projects, the 1-gigawatt-hour Stoney Creek project in Australia recently received grid interconnection approval and is in project financing, Piconi said. He expects it to come online in 2028. The company also completed its acquisition of Goshe, adding 2.3 gigawatts of U.S. battery-storage development projects, including 350 megawatts described as ready to build.
Across its broader controlled portfolio, Energy Vault estimates a potential annual EBITDA run rate of more than $200 million as it exits 2028, as projects progress to commercial operation. Piconi said that estimate excludes earnings from the build-and-transfer and Prime Power Solutions businesses.
About Energy Vault (NYSE:NRGV)
Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. develops energy storage systems designed to help utilities, power producers and other customers store electricity and deliver it when needed. Its offerings include gravity-based storage systems, which use mechanical processes to store and release energy, as well as battery energy storage systems and hybrid solutions. The company also provides VaultOS, a software platform for monitoring and managing energy storage assets. Its systems are intended to support renewable energy integration, grid stability and other energy management needs.
