What is Zacks Research’s Forecast for CBSH FY2026 Earnings?

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBSH) – Research analysts at Zacks Research upped their FY2026 earnings estimates for Commerce Bancshares in a report issued on Thursday, March 5th. Zacks Research analyst Team now expects that the financial services provider will post earnings of $4.04 per share for the year, up from their previous forecast of $4.03. Zacks Research has a “Hold” rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Commerce Bancshares’ current full-year earnings is $3.94 per share. Zacks Research also issued estimates for Commerce Bancshares’ Q1 2027 earnings at $1.07 EPS, Q2 2027 earnings at $1.10 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $4.41 EPS.

A number of other equities research analysts have also recently commented on CBSH. Weiss Ratings reiterated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Commerce Bancshares in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Piper Sandler set a $62.00 price target on Commerce Bancshares and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research report on Monday, January 26th. TD Cowen cut their target price on shares of Commerce Bancshares from $61.00 to $55.00 and set a “hold” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. Finally, Morgan Stanley lowered their price target on Commerce Bancshares from $67.00 to $65.00 and set an “equal weight” rating on the stock in a research report on Monday, March 2nd. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating and eight have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, Commerce Bancshares has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $61.51.

Commerce Bancshares Stock Down 1.4%

Shares of Commerce Bancshares stock opened at $48.89 on Monday. The company has a market cap of $7.18 billion, a P/E ratio of 11.67, a PEG ratio of 2.49 and a beta of 0.61. Commerce Bancshares has a 52-week low of $48.58 and a 52-week high of $63.19. The firm’s 50 day moving average price is $53.16 and its 200-day moving average price is $53.59.

Commerce Bancshares (NASDAQ:CBSH) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, January 22nd. The financial services provider reported $1.01 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.99 by $0.02. Commerce Bancshares had a net margin of 26.51% and a return on equity of 15.34%. The firm had revenue of $449.36 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $442.47 million. During the same period in the prior year, the business posted $1.01 earnings per share. The business’s revenue for the quarter was up 6.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Commerce Bancshares Dividend Announcement

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, March 24th. Stockholders of record on Friday, March 6th will be paid a $0.275 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, March 6th. This represents a $1.10 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.2%. Commerce Bancshares’s dividend payout ratio is 26.25%.

Insider Buying and Selling at Commerce Bancshares

In related news, CEO John W. Kemper sold 23,397 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, February 5th. The stock was sold at an average price of $53.99, for a total value of $1,263,204.03. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 206,528 shares in the company, valued at approximately $11,150,446.72. This represents a 10.18% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Also, SVP David L. Roller sold 1,134 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, February 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $54.48, for a total value of $61,780.32. Following the sale, the senior vice president directly owned 30,535 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,663,546.80. This trade represents a 3.58% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Over the last three months, insiders have sold 29,477 shares of company stock worth $1,586,655. Insiders own 3.10% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the company. Edgestream Partners L.P. boosted its stake in shares of Commerce Bancshares by 28.8% in the second quarter. Edgestream Partners L.P. now owns 178,420 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $11,092,000 after buying an additional 39,873 shares in the last quarter. Dynamic Technology Lab Private Ltd purchased a new stake in shares of Commerce Bancshares in the second quarter valued at about $1,948,000. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. grew its holdings in Commerce Bancshares by 59.5% during the 3rd quarter. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. now owns 102,227 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $6,109,000 after buying an additional 38,120 shares during the last quarter. Voya Investment Management LLC increased its position in Commerce Bancshares by 95.0% during the 3rd quarter. Voya Investment Management LLC now owns 194,642 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $11,632,000 after purchasing an additional 94,841 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Midwest Trust Co acquired a new position in shares of Commerce Bancshares in the second quarter valued at approximately $10,667,000. 70.26% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Key Headlines Impacting Commerce Bancshares

Here are the key news stories impacting Commerce Bancshares this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Rating/research tailwinds: Zacks upgraded CBSH from “strong sell” to “hold” and media coverage highlights management’s focus on balance‑sheet optimization and a rating upgrade that investors view as supportive for future capital deployment and profitability. How Investors Are Reacting To Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Rating Upgrade And Balance-Sheet Optimization Focus
• Positive Sentiment: Large institutional accumulation: Major institutions (Vanguard, State Street, Dimensional, American Century and others) increased stakes in recent quarters, indicating strong institutional conviction and a steady buyer base beneath the stock.
• Neutral Sentiment: Short‑interest data appears anomalous: Recent short‑interest posts show “0 shares” and NaN changes — likely a reporting glitch — so there’s no clear evidence of new short pressure driving today’s move.
• Neutral Sentiment: Valuation discussion: Several pieces are questioning whether recent share‑price weakness is already reflected in CBSH’s valuation and analysts’ FY2026 EPS outlooks — useful context for longer‑term investors but not an immediate catalyst. Is Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Pricing Reflect Its Recent Share Price Weakness? What is Zacks Research’s Forecast for CBSH FY2026 Earnings?
• Negative Sentiment: Insider selling: Two senior VPs disclosed open‑market sales (Margaret Rowe sold 861 shares at ~$51.69; Kim Jakovich sold 949 shares at ~$51.45). While not huge, these trims (≈13% and ≈7% reductions of their holdings) can weigh on sentiment when combined with other negatives. Margaret M. Rowe Form 4 Kim L. Jakovich Form 4
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst pressure: Morgan Stanley recently trimmed its target on CBSH as the sell‑side raises the bar for bank stocks; other shops have also reduced targets — this lowers street support and can amplify downside momentum. Morgan Stanley Lowers Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Target as Bank Sector Bar Rises

Commerce Bancshares Company Profile

Commerce Bancshares, Inc is a bank holding company primarily engaged in providing a broad range of banking and financial services across the Midwest. Through its principal subsidiary, Commerce Bank, the company offers commercial and consumer banking, treasury management, trust and wealth advisory, and mortgage lending. Its diversified product suite includes deposit and loan products, cash management solutions, capital markets services, and private banking designed to meet the needs of individuals, small businesses, and large corporations.

The company’s commercial banking group delivers tailored credit facilities, equipment and inventory financing, asset-based lending, and merchant services.