ICE revenue jumps 15% and MarketAxess deal closing moves earlier (NYSE: ICE)

What happened

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) grew third-quarter net revenues 15% to $2.8 billion and now expects to close its MarketAxess Holdings Inc. purchase sooner.

Net revenues are total revenues less transaction-based expenses. The 15% compares with the third quarter of 2025. Chair and CEO Jeff Sprecher called it the best third quarter in ICE's history, with double-digit growth in revenues, operating income and earnings per share.

GAAP operating income rose 20% to $1.4 billion. Adjusted operating income rose 19% to $1.7 billion. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $1.67 and adjusted diluted EPS were $2.02, both up 18% from a year earlier.

On Oct. 21, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission ended the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period early. That met one condition for the MarketAxess deal. ICE now expects the merger to close in the first quarter of 2027, ahead of the first-half 2027 timeline it gave in July. Other customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals remain.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Net revenues (total revenues less transaction-based expenses)	$2.8 billion	from $2.4 billion, +14.7%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Operating income (GAAP)	$1.4 billion	from $1.2 billion, +20%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Adjusted operating margin	61%	from 59%, +2 percentage points	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$1.67	from $1.42, +18%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Adjusted diluted EPS	$2.02	from $1.71, +18%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Returned to stockholders through Sept. 30 (nine months)	$2.5 billion		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1

Read more: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) company research

Where the growth came from

OptimistFi's calculation shows revenues less transaction-based expenses of $2.77 billion, against $2.41 billion in the third quarter of 2025. That is a 14.7% increase, which matches the growth the company reported.

Exchanges drove the increase. Segment net revenues rose 22% to $1.54 billion. Energy led at $603 million, up 25%, and Financials reached $190 million, up 37%. Ags and Metals rose 62% to $83 million.

Fixed Income and Data Services revenues rose 9% to $674 million. Fixed Income Data and Analytics reached $336 million, up 8%. Mortgage Technology was the slowest segment, up 4% to $549 million.

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What the adjustments and cash show

Profit looks stronger on an adjusted basis. The GAAP operating margin was 51%, up from 49% a year earlier. The adjusted margin was 61%, up from 59%.

The adjusted figures leave out $239 million of amortization of acquisition-related intangibles. They also leave out $48 million of transaction and integration costs, against $7 million a year earlier. Mortgage Technology shows the gap most clearly. Its GAAP operating margin was 2% and its adjusted margin was 40%. Its GAAP operating income fell to $13 million from $22 million.

Cash generation was firm over nine months. Operating cash flow was $4.5 billion. Adjusted free cash flow was $3.7 billion, up from $3.18 billion a year earlier. ICE returned $2.5 billion to stockholders, including $1.6 billion of share repurchases and $884 million of dividends. Diluted shares averaged 563 million in the quarter, down from 574 million a year earlier.

Outstanding debt was $23.3 billion against unrestricted cash of $936 million on Sept. 30. Chief Financial Officer Warren Gardiner said ICE expects to keep returning capital while it pays down debt after MarketAxess closes.

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that ICE's value depends on regulated market infrastructure and embedded data turning customer dependence into high cash earnings. The quarter supports that view. The Exchanges segment earned a 75% operating margin on $1.2 billion of operating income. Data and Connectivity Services revenue rose 10% to $292 million.

The faster growth came from transaction revenue, not the recurring stream the case leans on. Transaction revenues, net rose 23% to $1.40 billion, adding $264 million. Recurring revenues rose 7% to $1.37 billion, adding $90 million.

The 10-point gap between the adjusted and GAAP margins is the second caveat. ICE says its adjustments remove items it sees as not reflecting cash operations. But the lower GAAP figure is the one that includes acquisition costs.

What's next

ICE expects the MarketAxess merger to close in the first quarter of 2027. A return to the original first-half timeline would reverse the gain from the early antitrust clearance.

For the fourth quarter, ICE guided GAAP operating expenses of $1.32 billion to $1.33 billion and non-GAAP operating expenses of $1.08 billion to $1.09 billion. It guided a weighted average share count of 558 million to 563 million. It also expects 2026 capital expenditures of about $1.05 billion.

The guide for 2026 recurring revenue growth is 9% at Exchanges and 8% at Fixed Income and Data Services. In the third quarter, recurring revenue grew 8% at Exchanges and 9% at Fixed Income and Data Services. ICE reports fourth-quarter results on a call scheduled for Feb. 4, 2027 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Recurring growth in line with those guides would support the case. A shortfall masked by transaction revenue would weaken it.

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