Mosaic adjusted EBITDA falls 59.8% and Phosphate swings to an operating loss (NYSE: MOS)

What happened

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) reported a third-quarter 2026 net loss of $72 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, on revenue of $3.1 billion. It reported the results on Nov. 3.

Adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 million from $806 million in the third quarter of 2025, a 59.8% drop by OptimistFi's calculation. The company said results mainly reflected lower sales volumes in all segments and higher raw material costs in Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes. Higher phosphate prices partly offset them.

Mosaic also said it refinanced and extended all long-term debt maturities through 2028. Its $2.5 billion revolving credit facility remains fully available.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Net sales	$3.1 billion	from $3.5 billion, -10.2%	Calculated from SEC 8-K exhibit 99.2
Adjusted EBITDA	$324 million	from $806 million, -59.8%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Net income (loss)	-$72 million	from $411 million	SEC 8-K press release
Phosphate operating earnings (loss)	-$194 million	from $102 million	SEC 8-K press release
Cash flow from operations	$284 million	from $229 million, +24.0%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Net debt	$5.64 billion	from $4.42 billion, +27.7%	Calculated from SEC 8-K exhibit 99.2

Read more: The Mosaic (MOS) company research

Where the quarter broke down

Potash stayed profitable. Net sales were $643 million, down from $695 million a year earlier, and operating earnings were $189 million. MOP cash cost of production was $73 per tonne, down from $84 in the second quarter.

Phosphate lost $194 million at the operating line, against earnings of $102 million a year earlier. The DAP price rose to $838 per tonne from $714. But the segment's realized sulfur cost reached $715 per long ton, up from $272. Phosphate gross margin was negative $105 per tonne against positive $92 a year earlier.

Mosaic said it matched phosphate production to the supply of affordable sulfur. Phosphate ran at a 52% operating rate against 68% a year earlier.

Mosaic Fertilizantes lost $21 million at the operating line, against earnings of $96 million a year earlier. Net sales were $1.3 billion, down from $1.6 billion. Its phosphate operating rate was 27%, against 84% a year earlier.

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Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that Mosaic's value depends on price-cost spreads and cash conversion recovering. The quarter shows the spread problem in one segment. Phosphate prices rose, yet sulfur costs left Phosphate with a negative gross margin.

Cash conversion moved the right way. Cash flow from operations was $284 million, up from $229 million a year earlier, a 24.0% gain by OptimistFi's calculation. The company said the increase came mainly from lower finished goods inventories. Free cash flow was breakeven, against negative $135 million a year earlier.

The smaller net loss needs context. Pre-tax notable items, which Mosaic leaves out of adjusted figures, were $53 million in the third quarter against $351 million in the second. On adjusted measures the quarter was weaker than the second. Adjusted EBITDA was $407 million then, and adjusted loss per share was $0.19 against adjusted earnings of $0.13.

Debt and spending plans

Net debt reached $5.64 billion at quarter end, up 27.7% from $4.42 billion a year earlier by OptimistFi's calculation. Long-term debt including the current portion rose to $5.4 billion from $3.4 billion. Extending maturities moves out the repayment dates but does not lower the amount owed.

The refinancing carried a $13 million loss on debt extinguishment, which the company lists among its notable items.

Mosaic now expects 2026 capital expenditures of $1.2 billion and targets below $1 billion for 2027. It has booked $67 million of land sales so far this year. It is advancing the sale of the Arax facility in Brazil and evaluating other non-core assets. The company paid a regular dividend of $0.22 per share.

What's next

Mosaic settled its fourth-quarter sulfur contract at $615 per long ton, below the realized sulfur cost Phosphate booked in the third quarter. The company expects that to help fourth-quarter free cash flow, along with a further release of working capital and cost reduction initiatives.

The fourth-quarter report is the test. Free cash flow above breakeven and a smaller Phosphate operating loss would support the recovery case. Another quarter of lower volumes and rising net debt would weaken it.

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