What is KeyCorp’s Forecast for Vistra Q3 Earnings?

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) – Research analysts at KeyCorp issued their Q3 2026 earnings estimates for shares of Vistra in a note issued to investors on Wednesday, November 4th. KeyCorp analyst S. Karp expects that the company will earn $3.06 per share for the quarter. KeyCorp has a “Sector Weight” rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Vistra’s current full-year earnings is $8.92 per share. KeyCorp also issued estimates for Vistra’s FY2026 earnings at $8.04 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $11.01 EPS.

VST has been the topic of several other research reports. Wells Fargo & Company lowered their price target on shares of Vistra from $212.00 to $198.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, October 28th. TD Cowen reduced their price target on shares of Vistra from $222.00 to $221.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, August 19th. Weiss Ratings downgraded shares of Vistra from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a research note on Thursday, August 13th. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 price objective on Vistra and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday, August 12th. Finally, BMO Capital Markets decreased their target price on shares of Vistra from $210.00 to $188.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have assigned a Buy rating, three have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $205.00.

Vistra Stock Down 6.1%

VST stock opened at $113.00 on Friday. The company has a market capitalization of $37.93 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.09 and a beta of 1.37. Vistra has a fifty-two week low of $110.89 and a fifty-two week high of $196.80. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a current ratio of 0.97. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $144.19 and a 200-day moving average of $152.81.

Vistra (NYSE:VST) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Friday, November 6th. The company reported $3.25 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.98 by $0.27. Vistra had a net margin of 11.55% and a return on equity of 108.68%. The company had revenue of $6.35 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $6.03 billion.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 31st. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, December 22nd will be given a $0.2310 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Tuesday, December 22nd. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.8%. This is an increase from Vistra’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra’s dividend payout ratio is 15.54%.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other news, EVP Scott Hudson sold 22,222 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, October 6th. The stock was sold at an average price of $160.14, for a total transaction of $3,558,631.08. Following the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 308,915 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $49,469,648.10. The trade was a 6.71% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CEO James A. Burke purchased 4,465 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was bought at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the purchase, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $155,044,108. This represents a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this purchase is available in the SEC filing. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Vistra

Several large investors have recently made changes to their positions in VST. Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC grew its position in shares of Vistra by 26.9% during the third quarter. Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC now owns 809,741 shares of the company’s stock worth $113,161,000 after purchasing an additional 171,553 shares in the last quarter. Parallel Advisors LLC raised its position in shares of Vistra by 9.4% during the 3rd quarter. Parallel Advisors LLC now owns 6,481 shares of the company’s stock valued at $897,000 after buying an additional 558 shares in the last quarter. Guidance Capital Inc. raised its position in Vistra by 2.8% during the third quarter. Guidance Capital Inc. now owns 8,258 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,112,000 after purchasing an additional 224 shares during the period. Tamar Securities LLC lifted its position in Vistra by 11.1% in the third quarter. Tamar Securities LLC now owns 150,541 shares of the company’s stock worth $20,827,000 after buying an additional 15,005 shares during the last quarter. Finally, International Assets Investment Management LLC boosted its position in shares of Vistra by 299.8% during the third quarter. International Assets Investment Management LLC now owns 10,000 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,384,000 after buying an additional 7,499 shares during the period. 90.88% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Key Headlines Impacting Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BMO Capital Markets kept an “outperform” rating and set a $188 price target, although it lowered the target from $210. That target implies considerable upside from the $113 reference price. BMO Capital Markets rating
• Positive Sentiment: Options-market analysis cited by Barchart suggests shares could recover some recent losses after the quarterly update, though this is an expectation rather than a guarantee. Barchart options analysis
• Neutral Sentiment: Vistra is scheduled to report Q3 results before the market opens on Nov. 6. Analysts expect improved year-over-year revenue, making the report and management’s outlook potential near-term catalysts. Analyst expectations ahead of earnings
• Negative Sentiment: KeyCorp cut its rating from “overweight” to “sector weight.” Its estimates of $8.04 EPS for FY2026 are below the cited $8.92 consensus, reinforcing concerns about earnings expectations. KeyBanc downgrade rationale
• Negative Sentiment: Texas election results have raised concerns about potential policy changes affecting data-center growth and future electricity demand. The uncertainty is weighing on Vistra’s growth outlook, even as much of its near-term output is hedged. Texas election and Vistra outlook
• Negative Sentiment: Scotiabank lowered its FY2027 EPS forecast to $9.95 from $11.16, while retaining a “sector outperform” rating and $189 target. Separately, unusually heavy put-option buying indicates increased demand for downside protection. Vistra analyst and trading updates

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated energy company based in Irving, Texas. The company operates across electricity generation, power distribution support, energy marketing and retail electricity sales, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers primarily in the United States.

Vistra owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power generation and energy storage facilities. Its assets include natural gas, nuclear, coal and renewable generation, as well as battery storage projects.